Ukraine and WW3

There has been a lot of talk in the past few weeks about the situation in Ukraine.  Many Americans are afraid that we are going to war.  I've spent many years in the military and would probably be at the top of the list for going over should the situation get out of hand.  However, I am rather comfortable in saying I strongly doubt anything will really come of this situation.  Why would I say that?  It's rather simple.

First of all, no one in the current presidential administration or anywhere in Europe wants any kind of conflict. Our current leadership here in America are very much of the "Neville Chamberlain" mentality when it comes to this situation.  They are more than willing to 'sacrifice' the insignificant state of Ukraine to keep from having any kind of war.  Much like Chamberlain was willing to sacrifice Czechoslovakia in an attempt to keep Germany from going too far.  But doesn't this historical example mean we are doomed to WW3 in the next few years?  While that is possible in my opinion the surrounding events don't point to that scenario playing out.  There are some significant differences between Nazi Germany and modern Russia.  I'll explain this a little latter.  

Just looking at the past experience of President Obama’s administration and how they respond to international events we cannot find anything that would show the ability let alone the desire to do anything of significance.  Obama and his advisers have consistently waffled on any real decision.  It appears that confrontations against anyone other than the Republicans or Conservatives is either not important to them or they have no concept of how to interact with those entities.  The only time they seem to have made this kind of decision was with Libya, but even then it wasn’t decisive and hindsight has shown little study or forethought in what they decided to do.  

Secondly, Europe is completely enslaved to Russia's natural gas sources.  Should the situation get out of hand you'll find Europe spending some very cold winter nights without heat, not to mention other source of electricity.  The impact on the industries of Germany would be significant in an already unstable economic environment.  Speaking of economics, another reason Europe won't go to war is because they can't afford it.  Germany would be the only nation with both the economy and resources to even consider such an effort.  However, Germany no longer has the militant culture it once had.  Germany is much less inclined to any sort of military enterprise that goes beyond self-defense.  I guess you might say they’ve had quite enough after the last couple of wars. 

Thirdly, Russia isn’t exactly in a position to press too far.  It is true they have probably one of the better economies that Russia has experienced in the past couple of centuries or more, but it’s still rather shaky and cutting of their sales of natural gas and petroleum products to Europe would severely impact their economy to the negative.  Russia has some very real interests in pressing their borders outwardly but not enough to go to war.  Actually pressing their borders outwardly is what they see as a defensive measure to protect the motherland.  A superb in-depth discussion on this can be found on the Stratfor website.  Additionally President Putin is very much emboldened by the lack of decisiveness of President Obama in the past over major international events. 

With the proper perspective we can see that Russia is resorting to their time proven methods of ensuring safety for the motherland.  By distance.  Both Napoleon’s and Hitler’s invasion attempts have proven this method to be a viable option.  When you bring the Baltic States and then Ukraine along with Belorussia into the western European influence you move Russia’s buffer zone of protection from thousands of miles to mere hundreds of miles from Moscow.  Now that makes Russians very nervous.  A key difference between Putin’s Russia and Hitler’s Germany in 1938 is the fact that Putin has little desire currently to possess the world while Hitler was driven by the idea that he had to control the world.  Putin is a bit smarter and will only seek to control his portion of the world.

So what do I think will happen?  The United States and Europe while making a lot of noise as to how unfair or illegal they view this situation will do nothing significant.  Russia emboldened by the lack of activity on the west’s part will continue to press to bring those former Soviet republics back into their realm of influence.  Russia will likely carve off or allow to be carved off additional portions of Ukraine along the ethnic divides.  Obviously Ukraine unable to even serve as a speed bump against Russia will balk and complain but in the end will do little.  Belorussia will take note and will find themselves walking closer to the influence of “Mother Russia.”  Putin is not likely to press into the ethnically Ukrainian predominate portions of Ukraine, nor are they likely to press into the Baltic States which have already strongly aligned with the west.  That option would likely provoke a significantly stronger response from the west and risk an all out war. The US will continue to boisterously complain but do nothing more than superficial actions. 

Now this isn’t saying that some kind of Black Swan event may provoke an unexpected response and thus escalates events into an armed conflict.  After all, no one quite expected the Archduke to be assassinated by a Serb Anarchist.  The more likely event in the US would be some excessive clamoring by the Republicans and some event that would essentially force President Obama to save face and overreact to the situation.  It’s already obvious that the current administration is unable to effectively respond to international events and so the most likely scenario that goes bad would have to include the likelihood that they react this way. 

Expect the resurgence of a modern Russian Empire with Putin crowned as the Emperor, Europe to loudly stay neutral and the US to boisterously do nothing of significance.